CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-05T07:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26352/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen W and S in SOHO and STEREO A associated with long duration M1.6-class solar flare/filament eruption near S10W68. Faint shock presents as a full halo with preference towards the west. Around 2023-08-05T06:45Z, a dark filament near the western portion of the disk is seen lifting off, becoming a bright structure as it leaves the disk towards the west. A somewhat unclear arrival signature, affected by low quality solar wind data from both DSCOVR and ACE during this time period. Arrival signature: initial increase in B_total from 7.4 nT to 10.5 nT, followed by another increase to 13.6 nT at 11:54Z. The signature looks like a messy sheath arrival and it is possible that there is a flux rope/magnetic cloud at ~2023-08-08T01Z but this could be another CME arrival (LASSOS team). The current arrival may also have been observed at STEREO A around 2023-08-07T08:46Z. Alternatively, this could be the combined arrival of 2023-08-04T04:17Z and 2023-08-04T04:49Z CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T11:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-08T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2023 Aug 05 1652 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 07:12 UTC today. This partial halo CME is associated with a GOES M1.6 flare from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 and the filament eruption below the same AR region. This halo CME has a projected angular width of about 120 degrees and a projected speed of about 1000 km/s. Earth directed component of CME has been identified. Further analysis is on-going to estimate the arrival time of potential glancing blow of this CME. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 36.52 hour(s)
Difference: -24.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-08-05T22:36Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement